January 6, 2009
Reader Reports: 1286-1298 Treat Avenue Goes Up In Flames. Thrice.
A plugged-in tipster reports (and we edit):
I heard whispers but haven't seen it in the press yet that there was another fire in those treat avenue buildings over the weekend--there are three side-by-side buildings that are selling--the little birdie said it was the same one that was burned twice already. Word on the street is that they caught the arsonist and reports, albeit as of yet unconfirmed, are that it was one of the tenants who was fighting the ellis act eviction.
As always, we hope nobody got hurt and that's the last of the flames.
∙ A Reader Reports: 1286-1298 Treat Avenue Goes Up In Flames. Twice. [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (17) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Breaking News, SocketSite Readers Report, SocketSite Readers Report
483/497 Valley: We've Got The Details, Now Who's Got The Plans?
As plugged-in reader reports:
483 & 497 Valley Street were just listed @ $1.425 million for both [the cottage and lot]...with city-approved plans for a 4B/3.5 Bath, 2-car garage [on the lot]. The permit #200701101441 was filed in Jan/2007...[and] last sold in 9/2005 for $900,000. Nice appreciation if they get it. Would love to see the plans that were approved...
Of course it's not pure appreciation (on account of the approved plans), but so would we (like to see 'em). Tipsters?
∙ Listing: 483 Valley Street (2/1) + 497 Valley (lot) - $1,425,000 [MLS]
Readers' Comments (1) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Listings (for sale), SocketSite Readers Report
But Hey, What's The Bay Area Economy Have To Do With Real Estate?
"For all of 2008, just six venture-backed companies made their public debut, the worst showing since 1977 when there were also just six VC-backed companies that went public. Preliminary figures show just 260 M&A transactions last year, the first year since 2003 that were less than 300 venture-backed acquisitions.
Venture capitalists unable to cash in on their investments spells big trouble for the entire venture community and the broader Bay Area economy. The venture business is an engine of growth in the Bay Area, which traditionally gets about a third of all venture dollars invested."
∙ Venture-backed IPOs last year hit 30-year low [San Francisco Business Times]
∙ Sequoia’s Take On The New New (And Quite Local) Economy [SocketSite]
∙ From Underwater To Unemployed (And Sorry, But It’s Just Starting) [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (63) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Real Estate Economics, Trends
A Six And One-Half Year District 5 Single-Family Apple On The Tree
Sporting a bit of a sweet deco vibe in the living room, 444 Douglas is back on the market and asking $1,295,000. Purchased for $1,100,000 in August of 2002, a sale at asking would represent average annual appreciation of 2.6% over the past six and one-half bull market years for this solid single-family home in San Francisco's real estate District 5.
And while the sale for $1,100,000 in 2002 closed just 13 months after purchasing the property for $860,000 in 2001, do keeping mind that a bathroom was remodeled, rooms were renovated, and the foundation was bolted in between. But once again, we can't recall anybody discussing the measured appreciation over such short holding periods as being anything but representative of the market at the time (as it was and still is).
∙ Listing: 444 Douglass (3/2.5) - $1,295,000 [MLS]
Readers' Comments (64) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Apples To Apples, Listings (for sale), Seemingly Random, Trends
JustQuotes: Can You Say Risk/Default Premium?
"Federal Reserve officials are focused on driving down the spreads between U.S. Treasury yields and consumer and corporate loans, after cutting the main interest rate to almost zero failed to revive lending.
Credit costs for households and businesses haven’t followed yields on government debt lower. Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages were at 5.06 percent last week, 2.59 percentage points above 10-year Treasury yields; the spread averaged 0.88 point in 2003, when the Fed slashed rates to 1 percent."
∙ Fed Focuses on Consumer, Corporate Rate Spreads Over Treasuries [Bloomberg]
Readers' Comments (7) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Real Estate Economics, Trends
January 5, 2009
Multiple Offers And Officially “Over Asking!” For 69 Clementina #202
Advertising "7 offers received" three months ago it was sounding a bit like 2004 down in District 9 for #202 at 69 Clementina. And the short sale of this South of Market condo did officially close for "over asking" (at least over the last one).
Then again, while the reported contract price was $441,000 (asking $438,000) the most recent tax assessed value was $565,080. So much for 2004. Well, except for the counter tops.
∙ Multiple Offers (With A Little Different Flavor) In District Nine [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (11) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Apples To Apples
Mortgage Rate And Driver(s) Update: January 5, 2009
A quick mortgage rate update from Julian Hebron at RPM mortgage:
Rates open the first full week of the year about the same as they were leading into the holidays. A good 30yr fixed rate target for loans up to $417k is 5% or below, and the target for loans up to $625k is around 5.25%. For loans up to $417k and $625k, we’re close to those targets. Rates for loans from $625k to $1m are mid-6% range.
The Fed announced just before New Year’s that they’ve hired outside money managers to run their $500 billion mortgage bond purchase program and that it will start in January. We’ll likely see another update on timing this week. When that purchasing starts, it will drive bond prices up and rates down. [Editor's Note: They've started.]
The biggest news this week is Friday’s jobs report for December, which calls for 475,00 lost jobs and unemployment going from 6.7% to 7%. And this doesn’t even include post-holiday retail worker layoffs that won’t be captured until next month. It would mark 12 straight months of job losses and about 2.5m jobs lost for 2008. This news can cause rates to drop as investors dump stocks and buy bonds.
UPDATE (1/6): "Longer-term Treasuries fell for a fourth day, pushing yields on 10-year notes to the highest in three weeks, as concern the U.S. will sell record amounts of debt drove investors from the safety of government securities."
∙ All Your Home Loans Are Belong To Us (To Boost Liquidity) [SocketSite]
∙ Treasuries Drop Amid Concern U.S. to Sell Record Amount of Debt [Bloomberg]
Readers' Comments (11) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Real Estate Economics, Trends
Parkmerced: A Cultural Landscape Foundation "Marvel of Modernism"
As a plugged-in tipster notes, San Francisco’s Parkmerced has been named to the Cultural Landscape Foundation’s 2008 "Marvels of Modernism" list. From the Foundation:
Parkmerced was designed as “a city within a city” by architect Leonard Schultze and Associates with planning and landscape architecture by Thomas Church with Robert Royston.
Today, it is one of this country’s four remaining examples of large-scale, post-World War II residential developments. Unfortunately, there are numerous threats to the design, including plans by the current owners to subdivide portions of the site and make changes to the property’s pioneering landscape design.
From our tipster: "preservation = green + sustainable." We’ll let you write your own equation. Bonus points for proof of work.
∙ Landslide 2008: Marvels of Modernism – Parkmerced [tclf.org]
∙ Planning For 5,700 New Homes In San Francisco’s Parkmerced [SocketSite]
∙ Parkmerced: From The Plans To Develop, To The Plans To Preserve [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (28) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Being Green, Design & Architecture, Neighborhoods
Another One Rincon Hill ’02 (But More Importantly A Pool)
With a reported contract price of $1,423,500 in August 2008, One Rincon Hill (425 1st Street) #5002 is back on the market and asking $1,595,000. Yes, it’s another infamous "02." And yes, we have the pool.
∙ Listing: 425 1st Street #5002 (2/2) - $1,595,000 [MLS]
∙ One Rincon Hill (425 First Street): Secondary Market Stumbles [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (47) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Bay Buildings, Listings (for sale)
A Sign Of The Times And A Comp In 2005, So How About In 2009?
Purchased for $550,000 in June of 2004, this Outer Sunset single-family home was flipped eight and one-half months later for $680,000 (an increase of $130,000/23.6%) and established a new neighborhood comparable sale (“comp”) that we can’t recall being dismissed on account of the short holding period or location.
Bought back by the bank this past September for $535,075 this past September, 3004 Ortega is currently listed for $589,900.
∙ Listing: 3004 Ortega (2/1) - $589,900 [MLS]
Readers' Comments (38) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Apples To Apples, Bubble (Or Not), Listings (for sale), Trends
All Your Home Loans Are Belong To Us (To Boost Liquidity)
"The Federal Reserve Bank of New York started buying mortgage-backed securities today as part of a $500 billion program to support the U.S. housing market."
∙ New York Fed Begins Purchases of Agency Mortgage Debt [Bloomberg]
Readers' Comments (2) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Just Quotes (Emphasis Added), Real Estate Economics
New Year, New Listing, And New Price (But Old Victorian Grandeur)
It’s a new year, a new listing (now an official three days on the market), and a new price (now asking $300,000/15.4% less than its asking in early December) for 908 Steiner. But it's still the same old Victorian grandeur and detail which you'll either love or hate.
∙ Listing: 908 Steiner (4/3.5) - $1,650,000 [MLS]
∙ Victorian Through And Through (For The Most Part): 908 Steiner [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (11) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Design & Architecture, Listings (for sale), RealRecentReductions
January 1, 2009
Happy New Year. And As Always, Thank You For Plugging In.
It’s been an interesting 2008 in San Francisco real estate, and it’s going to be even more so in 2009. As always, we’ll keep you plugged-in. And we’ll kick off our new year coverage on Monday (1/5/09) with a bang.
Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: About SocketSite™
December 30, 2008
October S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Down Across The Board
According to the October 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 4.2% from September ’08 to October '08 and are down 31.0% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 19.1% (having fallen 2.1% from September).
Three of the metro areas have given back, on average, more than 30% of the value of homes since October of last year. Phoenix remains the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of 32.7%, followed by Las Vegas, down 31.7%, and San Francisco down 31.0%. Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego were close behind with annual declines of 29.0%, 27.9% and 26.7%, respectively.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA also continued their decline falling 3.1% from September ’08 to October '08, down 17.0% on a year-over-year basis and down 19.8% from an October 2005 high.
And San Francisco MSA single-family home prices once again fell across all three price tiers.
The bottom third (under $361,865 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.5% from September to October (down 42.1% YOY); the middle third fell 2.7% from September to October (down 27.6% YOY); and the top third (over $616,549 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.7% from September to October (down 15.7% YOY).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to January 2001 levels, the middle third has returned to April 2003 levels, and the top third has fallen to October 2004 levels.
The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Home Price Declines Worsen As We Enter the Fourth Quarter of 2008 [S&P]
∙ September S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Decline Continues [SocketSite]
Readers' Comments (254) | Permalink | Email Story | Filed under: Trends
